full image - Repost: Why I think TLRY can rip toward $10 in September (from Reddit.com, Why I think TLRY can rip toward $10 in September)
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Tilray (TLRY) has a rare setup brewing: possible U.S. cannabis policy news in September, heavy short interest, insider conviction, a stronger balance sheet than people think, and a legit beer business on top. Add October earnings into all this, and you’ve got a recipe for a September run that could squeeze toward $10.September, catalyst windowThe White House has said a cannabis rescheduling decision is coming “in the next few weeks.” That puts September front and center.If weed gets bumped to Schedule III, it’s not legalization, but it is a tax and operations game-changer. Even small policy hints have sent TLRY vertical before. This would be the biggest shift in years.Momentum into September + a real policy headline = the perfect setup for a spike.Shorts are walking on a trap doorAbout 13–17% of TLRY’s float is shorted.If a catalyst hits, shorts will have no choice but to cover. That’s where you get the face melting moves, the kind that gap a stock 50–100% overnight and keep running as late shorts panic.With calls stacking up and dealers forced to hedge, a squeeze in September isn’t just possible it’s on the table.Fundamentals aren’t broken• TLRY Nasdaq compliance restored (10+ closes over $1).• FY revenue around $821M.• Q4 adjusted EBITDA: $27.6M, trending up.• $256M cash on hand; debt around 0.3x EBITDA.Bottom line: TLRY isn’t a zombie stock any more than OPEN was. That gives institutions and traders confidence to pile in when momentum flips.Beer business = hidden upsideTilray is now a top-5 U.S. craft beer company after scooping brands from Anheuser-Busch and Molson Coors.Craft beer itself isn’t mooning, but the distribution network matters. If cannabis-infused drinks ever break through, Tilray already has the shelf space. Even near term, it makes them more than “just weed.”Europe + October earnings = extra fuelGermany expanded its medical cannabis market, and Tilray already has a facility supplying it. That’s long-term optionality.But in the short term: earnings in early October. If the stock is already moving on September hype, traders could push it higher into the print.Price action potential (in my opinion)TLRY sits around $1.38 now. Scenarios I see:• Base case (no news): $1.50 - $2 chop.• Policy catalyst: first leg toward $3 - $5.• Short squeeze + hype: $7 - $10+ blow-off move possible.If the catalyst hits, momentum + shorts could drive a serious run. If not, I cut quick. Shares safer than options given IV spikes.September is Tilray’s window. Shorts are loaded, calls are flowing, insider buys add confidence, and a policy bombshell could send this thing vertical. $10 isn’t guaranteed but for once, it’s not just a meme, it's a dream slowly becoming reality.
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