full image - Repost: Once we're several years into the new B1G/SEC realignments + TV deals, I believe we're going to see the networks get serious buyer's remorse on why they're paying underperforming schools $70 million+ per year to go 5-7 and have half-empty stadiums. (from Reddit.com, Once we're several years into the new B1G/SEC realignments + TV deals, I believe we're going to see the networks get serious buyer's remorse on why they're paying underperforming schools $70 million+ per year to go 5-7 and have half-empty stadiums.)
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As the TV money is set to go into the stratosphere for the B1G and SEC with their mega TV deals and conference realignment, I don't see how it's going to be all sunshine and rainbows for everyone involved. The reason is simple: no matter how much money you give to the schools, college football is still a zero-sum game. Not everyone can go 10-2, 11-1, 12-0. Someone is going to have to go 6-6 and 5-7 in the end. Not everyone is going to be in the mix for a conference championship, let alone a playoff berth when that gets expanded. This will inevitably fall upon the schools that continuously underperform year after year, and will be most subject to coaching/NIL/portal poachings.What I believe is going to happen is that once the initial euphoria and honeymoon period of the new TV deals wear off, the networks are going to snap back into reality. In the midst of continued cord cutting, the networks will take a hard look at what they're actually paying for. I'd wager it happens some time in 2027/2028 when network executives begin to question why they're paying the likes of Vanderbilt and Northwestern $70 million to go like 5-7 and have such low ratings. All in the meanwhile, the OSU/UM/Bama/UGAs of the world continue to do gangbusters with ratings and keep driving eyeballs to their games that the networks were probably thinking about when the big TV deals were signed. (From Googling around the TV revenue payouts seem to vary wildly between $70M to even up to $100M per school depending on the year, but that's just a range to see where we'd be at.)You can also see this issue compound with the fact that the newest additions to the B1G and SEC (PNW/SoCal schools and OUT respectively) are going to further drive ratings by virtue of simply being the new toy to look at so to say. The Vanderbilts and Northwesterns of the world are going to be increasingly feeling more left out because of these new additions to their respective conferences.This leads into what I believe will be the next wedge issue for realignment, which is when it will come time to renegotiate the TV deals in the 2030s (you have to think a few years ahead given the way these TV deals are done in advance). The big schools and the networks will sit down and come to the following consensus:Big schools will call for an end to equal TV revenue distribution, and instead demand bigger slices of the pie. They will point out to the networks that the big schools are the ones that drive the ratings, which is why they will argue they deserve more revenue.TV networks will continue to be reeling from cord cutting, and realize they can't keep paying the bad/underperforming schools so much money.Big schools will point out that the cord cutting won't be slowing down any time soon, and will likely continue to accelerate.If item 1 doesn't happen and big schools can't get a bigger share of TV revenue, this will kickstart talks of a dreaded "super conference".There has been a lot of talk about a bubble in TV money for college football. I believe that's only partially correct. As long as live sports continue to be a reason for TV networks to fill their inventory with it, they will continue to do so. What will happen instead is that the TV money will focus less on quantity of games, and focus on quality. Joel Klatt mentioned this in one of his emergency podcasts back in the summer when Colorado announced it was going back to the Big 12. The shift of "quality over quantity" will continue to force the networks' hands in making them reevaluate how much TV money they're willing to give the lesser schools. This is what will be the breaking point in what causes the nightmare scenario of a super league or conference, turning college football into a true NFL-lite experience.This is also isn't even getting into the ACC's GOR, which is still a wildcard in all this.Ultimately, money talks. I don't see a full blown TV bubble popping and meltdown, but what we're going to see in the next several years will force the networks to make hard decisions and actually question if it's worth paying a school like Indiana $70-$80 million per year just to simply to pad the stats of OSU/UM's players and records.tl;dr version: The TV deals signed the past few years will become bloated albatrosses looming over the networks once reality sets in, who will likely cut bait with smaller, underperforming schools in the next wave of TV contracts if the big schools can't get more money.
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